Kramnik on tiebreaks!

This of course is a predictive post, concerning the likely outcome of the 2011 London Chess Classic (although the results may be known when you read this). With one round to play Vladimir Kramnik holds a 2 point lead over Magnus Carlsen, under the 3-1-0 scoring system. The likeliest outcome is that Kramnik draws with Aronian and Carlsen beats Short, leaving both players on 16 points. Under the tie-breaks used for this tournament, this would be enough for Kramnik to take first place, as they both have the same number of wins (tie-break 1) but Kramnik has more wins with the black pieces (tie-break 2).
BTW This is not the only scenario as McShane and Nakamura are on 12 points, and a loss by Kramnik, a loss or draw by Carlsen, and a win for McShane would leave him in front on tie-break (his 3 wins have all been with Black).
And speaking of tie-breaks, the minutes from the recently completed FIDE Congress have been published , including the report from the Rules and Tournament Regulations Commission. The report contains a detailed explanation of various tie-break systems, including a recommended order for tie-break systems. Of course organisers are free to specify their own order, but if the LCC organisers had followed the recommendations, the order would have been: Direct encounter, No. of wins, Sonneborn-Berger, No. of games with Black, and finally Koya.

(*The morning after edition: Kramnik drew with Aronian, but Carlsen could not get past Short, leaving Kramnik in outright first. Carlsen's draw allowed Nakamura to move past him with a win over Adams, leaving Nakamura on 15 and Carlsen on 14)