Tuesday, 17 July 2012

Games Behind

In Baseball (and some other sports) the statistic "Games Behind" (or GB) is a metric of how many games you need to win to catch the leader. It is a fairly simple stat and is calculated by the difference between the wins-losses for both teams and then dividing by 2. It is also a useful stat for comparing teams who have played a differing amount of games.
Having a look at the latest Correspondence World Championship tournament, I can see where this kind of metric comes in handy. As CC tournament games are normally played simultaneously, the standings can be a little misleading, until you take into account the uncompleted games. In World Championship 27, the two players currently sharing first place have drawn all their games so far! In fact both have only one game left to play, and so at best could finish on +1. Helpfully the tournament cross table includes an RG (remaining games) figure for each player, so with a bit of brain power a better estimate of likely winners can be arrived at. If you assume that all the remaining games (42 still going) are draws, then Aleksandr Dronov (6.5 with 5 to play) would finish on 9/16, and be the likely winner. Of course this ignores the actual positions on the board, but given the large numbers of draws in this event, I would be surprised if the percentage of decisive games increases by much.

No comments: