Tonight could very well see the final game of the 2021 World Championship Match. A win for Carlsen would see him reach 7.5 points, the score he needs to retain his title. Even a draw would see Carlsen reach 7, so the worse that could happen was a round of tie-breaks.
Going into this game I can't see Nepo pulling back a full point. He might draw the game, postponing the inevitable, or over press, resulting in a win for Carlsen (in a similar ending to the 2013 World Championship Match). If I was a betting man, I would give Carlsen a 33% change of winning, and a 66% chance of it being a draw.
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