New FIDE Arbiters Manual

If you are looking for some light reading, or simply want to up your arbiting skills, then the new FIDE Arbiters Manual should be added to your 'lock down entertainment list'. Revised after the last FIDE Congress, it's 200 pages cover all the things you need to know for running FIDE rated and title events.
The document can be downloaded (as a pdf) at https://www.fide.com/docs/regulations/ARB%20Manual%202020.pdf and it is free to read and distribute.

The Election

tl;dr Dvorkovich ran a better campaign and had a better message than everyone else.

Long version

I found the 2018 FIDE Campaign quite interesting, although I was a little surprised at the outcome.
I was much more involved this time, as I was assisting Paul Spiller in his run for Oceania Zone President, and this turned into more general assistance to Nigel Short in his campaign for FIDE President. In the lead up to the Olympiad I was spending a lot of time ringing Oceania Federations (or at least trying to), and exchanging emails with the campaigns and federations.
From the outset PNG was not going to support the Makro ticket, as a consequence of what had happened regarding the PNG delegate in 2014. ("What do you think we were going to do?" was a comment I made to more than one person). Our position was therefore Short on the first ballot, and Dvorkovich on the second ballot if necessary. And initially I thought that Makro was going to win, based on the techniques used in 2014 (lock federations in early, bully/promise delegates with offers of positions, run the election in a way that favours the incumbent).
However once I arrived in Batumi things began to change. It became clear after the first few days that the Dvorkovich campaign was in this to win. The PNG delegation was invited to meet Dvorkovich after one of the rounds, and arriving at the suggested restaurant, noticed there were probably over 100 people of other federations in attendance.  Nonetheless he spent a good 45 minutes talking to us, taking note of out suggestions. At this point I realised that the election was going to a lot closer than the FIDE ticket had hoped.
In the expo area of the Olympiad both the Makro ticket and Dvorkovich ticket had stands. (There was no stand for the Short ticket as 'insurgents don't do stands!') While the Dvorkovich stand was putting out the positive message, the Makro campaign was running on the other tickets negatives (including producing some awful propaganda cartoons attacking the other candidates). The Makro campaign had also attempted to counter the well financed Dvorkovich ticket by trying to outlaw the giving of gifts etc (which had been a standard campaign technique for Makro etc previously). This was ignored and a number of federations availed themselves of the Dvorkivich goody bag.
Meanwhile the Short campaign was chugging along, mainly working on the other delegates during Breakfast, Lunch or Dinner. Short was working on the belief that he had 25 federations supporting him, which while not enough to win, was large enough to have a say in the final outcome.
Makro had also complained to the Ethics commission in the hope of getting Dvorkovich barred from the election. Once this complaint was rejected it became clear that the Makro ticket was in trouble (and they now knew it). The decison to reject the complaint was also an interesting one, as it showed a more independent mindset among some FIDE office holders. One of the issues from 2014 was every disputed case went in Kirsan's favour, which wasn't the case this time.
Closer to the actual vote all campaigns began to push a bit harder. Dvorkovich threw a couple of nice functions (one of which had mermaids), while the organisers threw a party for the Makro ticket (as an aside I and others offered to organise an event for Short at the Oasis Hotel where we were staying. This would have involved 8 bottles of wine and 250 Lari across the bar!) By this stage it was becoming very clear that Dvorkovich was close to winning on the first ballot (and he said as much to us).
I had planned to attend the whole day of the election, but an error in our team submission meant I had to play instead. I did get to attend the morning part of the election, but had to leave just before the vote began. However this was revealing enough, as the FIDE officials at the front of the room didn't appear that popular. Haiti made a complaint for the floor about how they were tricked out of voting, while the Slovenian delegate had to explain why their proxy was given to Makro the day after the board unanimously voted to support Dvorkovich (A stay in hospital was the apparent reason).
Before the vote each candidate gave a speech. Nigel Short Dvorkovich went first, followed by Nigel Short. Short used his platform to criticise the FIDE establishment. However he pulled a rabbit out of the hat at the end, by announcing his withdrawal and asking for a vote for Dvorkovich instead. Apparently this strategy was decided the day before, in the belief that staying in may have muddied the waters ('A GM move' said one person, 'A real d**k move' was another comment). By doing it this way he still had the right to give a speech, essentially making the contest 2 against 1. This seemed to catch Makro flat footed, as he was prepared for 2 rivals, not one.
After the speeches the voting took place, and in the end it resulted in quite a wide victory (by 25 votes to Dvorkovich). The Short team thought the difference was in the people who would have voted for them, although I think a couple of federations switched from Short to Dvorkovich.
With my game finished I returned to the congress to see a happy Dvorkovich team posing for photos, including with some people who had been on the opposite side an hour before!
Overall I thought it was a better election than in 2014, where personal animosity was the main driver. At least this time there were real policies put forward and decisions could be based on that. The Dvorkich campaign tapped in the desire to change things after 23 years, and this was a significant factor. Hopefully this will translate into an improved FIDE, but even if the new admin comes up short, at last the federations now know they are able to effect change at the ballot box, which I think is the most important thing.

How dare you campaign against me

The election for a new FIDE President is coming up very soon, and the current FIDE Vice President Georgios Makropoulos is taking no chances in trying to make sure he wins. He has referred one of his rivals, Arkady Dvorkovich to the FIDE Ethics Commission over a sponsorship package to the Serbian Chess Federation. The complaint asks that Dvorkovich be banned from any political activity with FIDE for 8 years.
Using the FIDE ElectoralEthics Commission has been one of Makropoulos's 'goto' moves in recent years. Gary Kasparov and Ignatius Leong copped a ban after the last election in 2014, with Kirsan Ilyumzhinov also receiving a sanction in the past year. The Ethics Commission has pretty wide latitude in deciding which cases are considered 'receivable' but I'm sure this one will be.
One body Makropoulos doesn't looked to have complained to is the FIDE Electoral Integrity Committee. This was announced in a blaze of publicity in July 2018 in a front page announcement in the FIDE website, and an email to all Federations. However soon after, the FIDE Electoral Commission informed FIDE that such a body was essentially worthless, that the duties were already being carried out by other commissions, and that is formation is not in accordance with current FIDE statutes. This piece of news was not shared as widely (I only found out after contacting the head of the Electoral Commission).
In the Oceania region there is also plenty of goings on that the Ethics Commission could be looking at instead. The Solomon Islands Chess Federation have gone public with an explanation about why their delegate is someone who they have never met, lives in Greece, and has connections with the current FIDE administration. It was in return for a 3000 euro payment for chess equipment, although the money has not been spent as yet (I have a copy of the bank transfer). And just as seriously, one of the candidates for Oceania Zone President was using an endorsement letter from a Federation that was composed by himself, with a signature from the federation president that was used without permission (It seems to have been cut and pasted from previous correspondence).
If the Makro campaign was serious about the integrity of the election process they should set a better example by referring one of their own to Ethics instead.

(Disclaimer: I am part of the incumbent management team of the Oceania Chess Confederation and am assisting the CleanHands4FIDE ticket in the upcoming election)

(Edited to correct atrocious spelling mistakes)

FIDE Fatigue - Not just yet

Most mornings when I wake up, the news stars with 'American President did ....'. After a year and a half of this, it is easy just to hit the off button and wait until the sport comes on. It appears the same is going on with news out of FIDE, although I'm not hitting the off button yet (although a few people I've spoken to are)
After last weeks 'anti-corruption' announcement confirmed that the current FIDE administration has very little money to fund their own campaign, there were further developments.
Current President Kirsan Ilyumzhinov caught a 18 month ban (12 months suspended) from holding political office from the Ethics Commission. Apparently it was for doing or saying something, although what that was, was only described in very general terms.
The Dvorkovich campaign then filed a complaint against the appointment of principles at the Chess Olympiad, arguing that can be considered a payoff for political support for the current FIDE executive. As I was previously on the Pairing Panel at the 2010 and 2012 Olympiads, I can confirm that appointments like this often have 'strings attached' as I was not reappointed in 2014, after refusing a request to make the PNGCF vote for Kirsan in the last FIDE election.
And the Olympiad Travel grants were announced. When the system of awarding grants was first established prior to the 2014 Olympiad, great care was taken that they could not be interfered with by the FIDE management. Eligibility was tied directly to FIDE Development status, and the amount was based on Continent or distance travelled (I know this because Rupert Jones and myself were the authors of the initial regulations). This seems to have been tossed out the window, as a number of strong European countries like Iceland and Poland are now receiving grants, while countries like New Zealand are required to entirely fund themselves.

(** I am working with Paul Spiller on his re-election campaign for Oceania Zone President, and through this, assisting Nigel Short's Clean Hands for FIDE ticket **)

What to do when you're down and out in Athens

Previous FIDE elections have seen an enormous amount of 'generosity' from the rival tickets. Invitations to conferences to delegates and Presidents*, plenty of schwag on offer before the GA, and of course, the all important offer of arbiting appointments or spots on FIDE commissions as a reward for voting the right way. And while FIDE drew a line for the behaviour of other campaigns, it wasn't a line that FIDE drew for themselves.
Now, in the post-Kirsan era, FIDE have suddenly decided that the upcoming elections should not be tainted by such practices. In an email to all Federations, FIDE have announced 'anti-corruption measures' designed to protect the integrity of the 2018 vote. Basically it says that no campaign can offer inducements to Federation Presidents, Delegates or other officials, in the form of gifts, subsidies, inducements or hospitality.  To enforce this rule, FIDE have established an Electoral Integrity Committee, and any offers are to be reported to them.
What isn't clear from this document is whether FIDE themselves can disguise their own inducements as legitimate operational requirements ( eg appointing delegates to paid arbiting duties or appeals committees). But based on the specification that any support for Olympiad travel outside what they are providing for developing countries is to be considered, I'm assuming that they will exempt their own payments from scrutiny.
Having already discussed the document with a highly placed FIDE official (who ironically was away sick on the day it was announced), there seems to be two schools of thought. His take is that it is part of the anti-corruption efforts of Malcolm Pein. I on the other see it somewhat differently, instead attributing to the fact that the Makropoulos campaign knows it does not have the same financial support that the Dvorkovich or Short campaigns have, and as a result are simply changing the rules at the last minute to try and cling to power.

(* I scored a free trip to the World Championship match in 2014, for such a conference)

And Kirsan drops out

In what was seen as an inevitable move, Kirsan Ilyumzhinov has announced he is not contesting the 2018 FIDE Presidential election. Once Arkady Dvorkovich announced his candidacy it was assumed that Kirsan was finished, and the decision by the Russian Chess Federation to endorse Dvorkovich nailed the coffin shut.
The race is now a three cornered contest, with Short, Makropoulus and Dvorkovich still in the running. July 3 is the date for the tickets to be submitted, but all three campaigns have announced their candidates. From this part of the world Paul Spiller (NZ) is part of the Short ticket, as a potential FIDE Vice-President.
Spiller, who is the Oceania Zone President, is also being challenged for that role by Jamie Kenmure. Kenmure has built up his connections with some of the Oceania federations, and then used their votes to curry favour with the current FIDE administration. It would be shame if such behaviour is rewarded come October, but this is politics FIDE style (even if some FIDE insiders have expressed a vehement dislike for Kenmure).

(** Disclaimer: I am on the current Oceania Chess Confederation Executive and am supporting Paul Spiller in the Zonal election)

FIDE President's Race - Is it four or two candidates?

A new candidate has thrown his hat into the race for the FIDE Presidency, with Arkady Dvorkovich becoming the fourth candidate for the office. The details of his announcement can be found in this article on chess.com, including some discussion about what this means for the other candidates.
One theory is that Ilyumzhinov will now drop out of the race, as the Russian government will shift their support to Dvorkovich. Taking it one step further is the suggestion that the Makro ticket will merge with the Dvorkovich ticket, with Dvorkovich becoming the Presidential Candidate, Makro remaining as Deputy, and Malcolm Pein being let go (or offered a Vice President position as a consolation prize).
However I'm not sure that the second scenario is as likely as the first, as the logical step for both parties would have been to negotiate this behind close doors. By announcing his candidacy in this way Dvorkovich seems more likely to have his own set of office bearers in mind (although defections from the Makro ticket cannot be ruled out)
Nonetheless, a new Russian candidate wouldn't be seen as bad news for FIDE insiders. The real problem that the current FIDE executive have with Kirsan had nothing to do with his management style, or ethical issues, but simply that he is now costing them money. While he was bringing money into FIDE (through personal contributions, or connections with other governments) concerns about his ethical standards were dismissed as pro Kok/Karpov/Kasparov propaganda, but when FIDE had to actually pay for his expenses (and there was less money for pet projects of other board members) then suddenly the other issues that had been ignored for years became critical to how FIDE 'should' be run.
So if Dvorkovich can bring in a new income stream (or just resurrect Kirsan's old network) then it can be business as usual in the Athen's office.

Short throws his hat into the ring

GM Nigel Short has become the third candidate for FIDE President, with the official announcement that he is running. At this stage he hasn't revealed the rest of his ticket, although I assume this will take place shortly.
With a three cornered contest in play (assuming no one drops out), the electoral dynamics change. According to the FIDE electoral regulations, if one of the candidates receives 50%+1 on the first ballot, they win there and then. But if no candidate receives a majority, then there is a second vote, and the candidate receiving the most votes is elected (even without a majority).
So one path for victory for Short, or indeed each of the candidates, is to hope that it goes to a second vote, and to pick up enough defectors to get the most votes. In such circumstances it may even be an advantage to run 3rd on the first vote, and hope the ticket that runs second then prefers to vote against the first place finisher!
Of course FIDE politics being what it is, privilege over principle is the rule rather than the exception, so any calculations like this need to take into account the inevitable horse trading that will occur.

Two FIDE Announcements - One good, one not so good

FIDE have made two announcements in the last few days, one good and one not so good.
The one that can be classified as good is the announcement of the details for the 2018 Olympiad in Batumi, Georgia. The details are at this link, and pretty much cover the calendar and organisation of the tournament.
The one that is not so good concerns the shutting down of the FIDE Bank Accounts. Despite this being an issue that dates back to the reelection of Kirsan Ilyumzhinov in 2014, FIDE have failed to find a solution to their self inflicted financial problems, and so for now have told Federations "please do not send any monies to our accounts with UBS as it will only be returned to you at your cost."

FIDE field begins to take shape

The field for the upcoming FIDE elections is beginning to take shape with 2 starters already stepping forward. incumbent President Kirsan Ilyumzhinov has declared his intention to run again, while incumbent Deputy President Gergios Makropoulos is also standing, after being 'asked by the majority of the Presidential Board, and many delegates'.
The first shots have already been fired, with members of the Makro team already using the increasingly weaponised FIDE Ethics Commission to take action against members of the Kirsan team (a tactic that was used after the 2014 election against Kasparov and Ignatius Leong).
And in what can be filed under 'coincidence, really?' is a request from FIDE for facebook pages and twitter accounts of Federations, Federation President's and delegates. Apparently FIDE think this is now an important resource to share 'FIDE news and also check and promote chess related news which is published by your federation and officials'. I assume any news that doesn't pass the FIDE check in the lead up to the election will be closely examined by the Ethics Commission.

FIDE chickens looking for roosts

The fallout from the 2014 FIDE election continues to roll on, with the FIDE bank account in Swistzerland being frozen. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/13/world-chess-body-has-swiss-bank-accounts-frozen-president-accused/)
As the above article says, this is due to  FIDE President Kirsan Ilymzhonov being under US government sanctions for his involvement in financing aspects of the conflict in Syria. Of course this has been an ongoing issue for FIDE for a few years now, but has come to a head at a somewhat unfortunate time.
The article does quote FIDE Treasurer Adrian Siegal placing the blame directly on the FIDE President, but he would do better to look at the actions of some of his other FIDE colleagues. One of the problems that FIDE face is that they have no real mechanism for removing Ilyumzhinov, but this is a problem that the organisation created for itself.
In pushing so hard for Kirsan to win the past two elections (2010 and 2014), the FIDE executive essentially ran roughshod over any idea of executive accountability. This has meant that there are no real mechanisms for holding anyone accountable for their actions (unless you are a former FIDE executive member or unsuccessful candidate), and so Kirsan will remain president until the next election.
That this has occurred is of little surprise to me, based on what I witnessed during the 2014 election in Tromso. There was a definite 'win at all costs' mentality on show there, which I personally thought crossed the line in terms of what should have been an independent process. An obvious example of this was Kirsan's promise of $40,000,000 to support chess, which while being an obvious lie, was praised or excused by members of the FIDE Executive, rather than condemned by the very people who knew it was untrue.
After the election was I was even accused of being depressed because 'my guy lost', to which I replied, "No, I'm upset at the level of behaviour I've seen from people I expected better of". And it is this attitude of privilege over principal that has left FIDE painting itself into a corner.
Of course it is the same people who campaigned so passionately (and in some cases unethically)  for Kirsan's election who are now turning around to claim that they are the only people who can fix it. I have no doubt that they themselves believe it, and that is part of the problem with the current executive. Better for all would see them confess their past sins, take some responsibility for this fiasco, and then consider what they should do in retirement.

As the world turns ...

While I was busy playing seniors chess in New Zealand, I missed the soap opera about the lives and loves of the FIDE management team. The 2017 Congress saw a public airing of a number of grievances, including "I hate it when you call me names" and "You don't bring me money, anymore".
FIDE Deputy President Makropoulos gave an opening speech highly critical of current President Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, and the Executive Board  voted in favour of a motion asking Ilyumzhinov not to run for President again.
Now as the distance between me being on FIDE commissions and the present day gets longer (for reasons referenced here), I get less of the direct gossip and mainly receive my news second hand. So what I believe is going on may of course be wildly inaccurate. But here goes ...
Ignoring his own EB, Kirsan will run again. This is being pushed by the Russian government, who wish to show that US sanctions have no effect. While he has lost the support of the America's, Asia is still behind him (at the Continental management level).
The rest of the FIDE Management are either looking at finding a wealthy new Presidential candidate (to tip money into FIDE), or will run Makro as the candidate. Apparently Makro believes he is the only one who can run FIDE without a new source of cash.
A few 'outsider' candidates are thinking of making a run, although in this case the outsider's are actually FIDE insiders, just at a non management level (including one person from this part of the world). At this stage these candidates are not being taken seriously.
Finally, there is some serious sucking up between FIDE people and members of the losing side from the 2014 election. As was once memorably quoted in the movie Spinal Tap "Money talks, and bullshit walks"

2022 Olympiad to be held in Zimbabwe

I'm not 100% percent sure this report is accurate, but apparently Zimbabwe is to host the 2021 World Cup, and the 2022 Chess Olympiad. On the one hand they do quote FIDE President Kirsan Ilyumzhinov in the report, but on the other hand, the FIDE website seems to have nothing on this breaking news (and usually they report on anything Kirsan does), and more importantly, these decisions are made at the FIDE Congress 4 years before the event (ie the 2018 congress).
So it is either a misunderstanding on the part of the news agency, or Kirsan has decided to fully embrace his inner Trump and just say whatever he wishes.

The bigliest World Championship ever

While holidaying in the UK I took some delight in making the obvious comparisons between the President of FIDE and the President of the USA. This led to some slightly awkward conversations with people who were astonished at the outcome of the 2016 US elections, but had campaigned for Kirsan in the 2014 FIDE elections (although there was one friend who was happy with both outcomes).
And it seems that the similarities have not ended, with a report the London is being considered as a venue for the next World Championship Match. The source of this proposal was Kirsan himself, in an interview he gave with the Tass News-agency. Of course it seems that FIDE themselves no nothing about it, or of they do, nothing is showing on their website. I'm pretty sure this isn't because the designated spokesperson is hiding in the bushes trying to get their story straight, but almost certainly because the days of breathlessly reporting every statement, trip or activity of the FIDE President is now over.
That's not to so it won't happen (although it seems that the ECF has not yet been informed), but I'm assuming credit for making it happen will be claimed no matter where the Championship match is eventually held.

Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing

So after the fireworks of the previous FIDE Presidential Board meeting, the latest news to come out of Athens is somewhat underwhelming. Apparently the previous resignation of Kirsan Ilyumzhinov as FIDE Presdient was all a misunderstanding, and he is now staying on until the next election in 2018. The powers that he had handed over to FIDE Deputy President Georgios Makropoulos to allow FIDE to dodge US sanctions remain handed over to the FIDE Deputy President, so nothing has changed there either. In fact, to quote John Cleese, 'blessed is just about everyone with a vested interest in the status quo, as far as I can tell'.
For all the name calling, lawyers at 10 paces, and 'he said, she said', FIDE is still in the situation is was 2 weeks ago, with a President who has no power, an executive who does as they please, a lot of people with their eye on the next election. I guess the PB got another trip to Athens out of it, but unless the real goal was to increase the number of hits on the FIDE website, the whole exercise served no purpose.

Informed or spammed?

Spam emails. We get them because they work. There is always someone going to click a link, or buy a product, or take some other action that financially rewards the sender. Otherwise no one would send them.
This motivation keeps occurring to me every time I receive an email from the FIDE Office concerning the on going issues with the Presidency. There has been a steady outflow of emails trying to justify the actions taken by the executive, clearly intended to garner support from a chess community that has previously been bullied, bribed, coerced or simply ignored by FIDE and its office holders. It seems 'persuasion' is the latest flavour of the FIDE sandwich on offer, and so far it doesn't taste particularly nice.
From my personal position, while it would be an improvement if Kirsan was no longer FIDE President, it isn't much of an improvement if the people that fought tooth and nail to keep him in power (as recently as last year) only changed the figurehead. The incidents that occurred during the 2010 and 2014 FIDE Elections  would simply be repeated in 2018, just with a new name at the top of the ticket.
So for now I'm watching from the sidelines, feeling like I'm watching Carlton play Collingwood. I'm not interested in who wins, just who suffers a career ending injury.

Omnishambles

Either FIDE Executive Director Nigel Freeman has done something deliberately brave, or something accidentally stupid, by publishing the news that FIDE President Kirsan Ilyumzhinov has resigned. It seems that the basis for this claim was that Kirsan had verbally threatened to resign during the latest FIDE Presidential Board meeting, and at the end of the meeting said 'I resign' three times before leaving.
Kirsan has denied that he did resign (only once I assume), and I suspect this leaves FIDE in a bit of a quandary. The Presidential Board seems to want to be rid of him (and some members were openly speaking of ditching him at the next election), but claiming he has now resigned is a bit of a stretch. Under the FIDE statutes they can try and have him removed, but according to one section requires the approval of the Ethics Commission.
If I was a lawyer, and I am not, I would want to see a written resignation before I tried to appoint a new President (which will be Makropoulos in an acting capacity according to A.03.10 of the FIDE Handbook). Of course they could just ignore him and hopes he goes away, as apparently Kirsan isn't really the President, as FIDE want to keep doing business with the United States.
Or based on recent experiences (both personal and observational), the FIDE PB could just pick a rule that suits them and enforce that one, to the exclusion of all else. It is a policy that worked in the lead up to the 2014 election, so it should work now.

Stop me if you've heard this one before

It seems that the FIDE Executive have found a way of replacing their troubled President Kirsan Ilyumzhinov. The front page of fide.com has states that he has announced his resignation, and that an extraordinary board meeting will be held in April. While this seems pretty straightforward, according to Kirsan himself, this news is false, and has no intention of standing down.
This has all occurred in the last few hours, so for later updates I suggest you catch the whole story at chess.com.

Things I've never been asked to do

A few people have asked me about the dress code that was put in place for the 2017 Womens World Championship being held in Iran. Instead of debating whether it is appropriate, or whether the event hosts have the right to set such conditions, I simply point out that despite playing chess in a number of countries, I have never been told what I must wear at the board (although I have been asked to wear a suit on occasion while working as an arbiter). I'm not saying that those who played or chose not to were right/wrong, just that this rule seems to be only applied to 50% of the worlds population.
I've also never been asked not to play an opponent for political reasons. The issue of refusing to play against players from a certain country has come up again, with news that Iranian player Borna Derakhshani has been suspended by his federation for playing against Alex Huzman from Israel at the Gibraltar Masters. This has been an issue at other events, including the Chess Olympiad, although my suggestion that such boycotts are only legally acceptable if supported by a directive from the players country hasn't gained much traction within FIDE. Instead FIDE publicly pretend they have no policy on this matter, although privately they do (eg at Olympiads). However I do find this case slightly surprising, as there was at least one instance in the tournament where and Iranian v Israeli pairing was changed. So I'm not sure why this one went through.

Kirsan to go - but not quite yet

Apart from the chess at the Olympiad, the other big games was politics. After the release of the FIDE financial report showing how much trouble FIDE is in, there were plenty of rumours floating about the Kirsan Ilyumzhinov was for the chop.
The juiciest claim was that there is a "sugar daddy" is the wings, willing to invest 10 million Euro's in FIDE, but only if Kirsan stood down. This did not happen at the Congress (a motion of no confidence was ruled out of order), so it will be interesting if the offer is around in 2018 (assuming the story is true).
From a more credible (and very high level 'inner circle' source) is the claim that Kirsan will not run in 2018 anyway. He has lost the confidence of the Continental President of America, Jorge Vega, and without this large block of votes he realises he has no chance of winning.
At this stage no replacment has been seriously suggested. A few names have been floated privately (Filatov, Vega or Sheik Sultan Bin Khalifa Al-Nehyan) but they have either said no, or haven't got an organised ticket behind them as yet.
Even if Kirsan goes it is likely at this stage the existing management team will simply hitch themselves to another figure head and hang on to power. The only possibility of effective change is if in the confusion the various continents and federations split into opposing camps, making the election more about policy, and less about patronage.