The current win rate of 16% (5 from 30) is extremely low and already discussions about why this is so have started. Probably the most popular theory is that all the players are so close together in strength that risk-free play is the optimal strategy. Of course the downside of this is that if neither player takes a risk, then a draw is the likely outcome.
This theory seems to be supported by what happened in the Grischuk - Anand game today. If you look at the position after move 22 you might think that Anand was on top. However there is a difference between dynamic features and static features, and after the exchanges on f3, it is the Black c pawn that is the real target in the position. White's bishop is out of play on h1, but this is only a short term disadvantage, and after a further 20 moves, White repairs his position, and then converts the ending.
So Anand may have tried to mix things up with his kingside play, but this came to naught, as Grischuk was able to weaken the c pawn as far back as move 12, before defending for as long as necessary.
London Chess Classic Olympia, London (6.1), 10.12.2015
1. c4 e5 2. d3 Nc6 3. Nf3 f5 4. g3 Nf6 5. Bg2 Bb4+ 6. Bd2 Bxd2+ 7. Qxd2 O-O 8. Nc3 d6 9. O-O Bd7 10. Nd5 Nxd5 11. cxd5 Ne7 12. Qb4 Nxd5 13. Qxb7 c6 14. Nd2 Nb6 15. Qa6 d5 16. Rac1 f4 17. Nf3 Qf6 18. Qa5 Kh8 19. b3 Bg4 20. Qc3 e4 21. Qxf6 Rxf6 22. Nd4 f3 23. exf3 exf3 24. Bh1 Rc8 25. Rfe1 h6 26. b4 Na4 27. Re3 Rcf8 28. h3 Bxh3 29. Rxf3 Bd7 30. Bg2 g5 31. Rxf6 Rxf6 32. Nf3 Kg7 33. Ne5 Be8 34. Bh3 h5 35. d4 Nb6 36. Rc3 Nc4 37. Nxc4 dxc4 38. Rxc4 Rd6 39. a3 Bf7 40. Rc5 Rxd4 41. Rxg5+ Kf6 42. Rf5+ Kg6 43. Rc5 Rd1+ 44. Kh2 Bd5 45. Bg2 Rd2 46. Bxd5 cxd5 47. Kg2 Kf5 48. Ra5 Ke4 49. Rxa7 d4 50. b5 Rb2 51. a4 Kd3 52. Rb7 Ra2 53. b6 Rxa4 54. Rb8 1-0
1 comment:
Caruana could easily have 3 wins by now, against Nakamura (3), Topalov (4), and Grischuk (5).
MVL might have beaten Nakamura. Anand had his chances early against Carlsen, who then turned them around late, but a draw was the end result. In the same round, Grischuk had Giri on the ropes before his time trouble spoiliation. Topalov had good prospects just this round (6) against Adams.
MVL-Grischuk might have looked tame after the queens departed, but both players were unclear who was playing for what in their remarks.
OTOH, Topalov could have held against Anand, who himself against Grischuk (6) had a fleeting draw chance (d3 not Kd3) at the end. If it were just draw rate, it could be just stats and fluctuations. But the Berlin has been seen too often for some eyes (particularly Nigel Short's).
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